Over the coming year, I would like to organize a new society specifically on the study of infectious diseases in the past. It is called Contagions: Society for Historic Infectious Disease Studies. It is open to everyone working on contemporary or historical aspects infectious diseases that can be studied in the past. Examples of these diseases include plague, cholera, smallpox, leprosy, influenza, tuberculosis, malaria, brucellosis, rinderpest, potato blight, typhoid fever, parasites (worms, mites), etc. As this list illustrates, I think diseases of humans, animals, and plants should all be included because they all affect human health and nutrition. The organisms themselves are a point of continuity throughout time. As ancient DNA technology expands the list of ancient infectious diseases that can be identified in time and place is likely to grow by leaps and bounds. I believe that it is helpful to have people who study them today in communication with those who study them in the past via biology, history, epidemiology, public health, archaeology, ecology, climate and more. This is a true interdisciplinary topic.
To begin, there are only two goals:
Organize sessions for academic conferences. Initially, the International Congress on Medieval Studies at Kalamazoo, but perhaps others as well.
Create an email discussion list on google groups open to all members. Membership in the google group will constitute membership in the group. I can act as a gatekeeper but otherwise unmoderated. The message archive will be available to members only.
I do not see any reason for a fee. I think we can get things started for a couple years at least with volunteers.
To get things started I have arranged for the society to sponsor two sessions at the upcoming ICMS at Kalamazoo in May 2017. There will be a round table on Bruce Campbell’s new book The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Late Medieval World. This is the first book that I know of that examines the Black Death with the new genetic paradigm in the context of the entire 14th century throughout the Old World. The second will be a session of papers on “Historic Landscapes of Disease” which will continue the series I have been personally sponsoring for the last couple of years. I am looking for papers that focus on epidemiology, ecology of disease, environmental history and disease, history or archaeology of human health and disease, and related topics.
If you are interested in joining the society or participating in the Congress next May, please contact me with the form below. Abstracts are due by September 15. I am really looking forward to gathering a truly interdisciplinary group of people who are all interested in historic diseases.
In our previous blog post, Monica and I discussed how different lineages of plague – Yersinia pestis – collected their own genetic signature (SNP profile) as they diversified from a common ancestor. Monica also summarized in broad terms what ancient DNA samples of Y. pestis (extracted from plague victims) are now available from the initial Black Death outbreak and how they are related, using the latest plague studies of Haensch, Bos and Spyrou.
In this blog post Monica will delve into the nitty gritty details of these aDNA plague studies, and give an example of how to transform those details into a new understanding of the past rodent reservoirs and global mobility of plague, one of the deadliest diseases of our collective past. And I close the post by reflecting on the potential of aDNA to connect the fields of history and biology.
Thanks, Boris. It might be important to remind readers that we don’t have any aDNA evidence from past rodent populations yet. All the samples to date have been retrieved from human victims. But the SNP study that Seifert et al. published earlier this year from samples in Brandenburg, an inhumation from the time of the 30 Years War (1618-1648); the whole genome study that Bos and Herbig et al. also published this year, reporting on the samples from 18th-century Marseille; and the sample from Ellwangen included in the new study by Spyrou et al., all document that Branch 1A (see tree in our previous post) “focalized,” that is, it set up shop in some rodent population(s) and happily continued to proliferate for another 400 years. But all that happened, it is clear, separately from what was going on with Branch 1B, what I have taken to call the pestis secunda.
In their most recent study, the Tübingen/Jena team headed by Krause give us further insight into the early stages of Branch 1B. The beginning of Branch 1B was first documented in the 2011 London study, though it was only earlier this year that I realized that London sample 6330 likely dates from the 1360s and does not come from the initial Black Death outbreak. (It comes from a different burial ground, St Mary Graces.) In Bos and Herbig et al. 2016, it was reported that sample 6330 differed from the 1348-50 London Y. pestis genome by two SNPs. In the present study, interestingly, Spyrou et al. report something slightly different. Sample 6330 does indeed differ from the London Black Death genome by two SNPs (p3 and p4), but a third SNP in sample 6330 they are reporting here for the first time (p5) seems to be unique, a ‘G’ to ‘T’ switch at position 4,301,295 not found in any other historic genome or in the reference strain, CO92. (Spyrou et al. did not include London 6330 on their Table 1, so we offer a modified version of it here in fig. 3.)
First of all, we might say that those three SNPs are significant for the time gap they suggest between the Black Death and the 2nd wave of plague to hit London in 1361-63; for the sake of argument, we’ll say “21 years,” to use your formula (3 x 7 years), Boris. But think about the implications of that: plague arrives in London at the end of 1348 as a new disease, and a new strain (with 3 new SNPs) is causing a major new outbreak in 1361-63, which is when this burial seems to date from. 21 years have not passed since the previous outbreak. So what gives? Obviously, the “time-to-SNP” calculus we’re using is an average, not an absolute. But it does make us stop and wonder: did all this really happen so fast? And did it really happen in western Europe?
Which brings us to the Bolgar City sample. It, clearly, is a “descendant” of the same strain as London 6330: it has the two new SNPs, p3 and p4. (It doesn’t have that unique p5 SNP of London 6330, but that may have arisen as little as three days before this person died. We cannot attach any evolutionary significance to it until we see it documented somewhere else.) But note this: the Bolgar City strain has evolved further. It now has the p6 SNP that will define all the rest of Branch 1B and it has its own unique SNP, p7. And again, we have a problem of time compression: the Bolgar City sample (if we can trust the dating of the coins which were said to have been found with the body) may date as early as the late 1360s.
Remember what we need to have an outbreak in humans from a new lineage of Y. pestis: not simply does that new lineage have to arise from a single change in a single cell of Y. pestis, but that new SNP needs to proliferate enough in a reservoir rodent population to cause a new epidemic in humans. So looking over all these SNPs, p1-p7, we can see that they cluster into two “founder effect” phenomena: one that creates the initial Black Death lineage (Branch 1A) and one that creates the pestis secunda lineage (Branch 1B).
Where did those two lineage foundations happen? Let’s go back to Caffa, the “hurling bodies over the walls” scenario. Clearly, if we can believe that story (and remember, we have only one account of it, and that from a non-eye-witness), it tells of an already proliferating plague outbreak. By October 1346, Y. pestis was multiplying by the millions in rats and mice and rodents of whatever kind that lived in and around Caffa.
One, and only one, of those gazillions of Caffese offspring gave rise to Branch 1B. It, too, needed to find a place to set up shop and proliferate to make gazillions of (nearly) identical copies. And where was that place? Was it (as Krause seemed to imply in his April lecture) in London? Maybe it was in or near Bergen op Zoom (NL), where we find a sample with the same SNP profile as the London 6330 sample (Haensch et al. 2010)? Or was it near the same place where Branch 1A had already established its original home, before it reached the Black Sea? Haensch et al. had already proposed in 2010 a “northern” route for the introduction of the pestis secunda strain that reached the Netherlands. I’ll admit, I was skeptical for the longest time. But now I see that this possibility might bear more analysis. At the very least, the question shifts our focus away from western Europe and back to the areas around the Black and Caspian Seas. And that’s exactly where our Bolgar City sample is from, the one that is already showing two SNPs of further evolution beyond London 6330 but might not be a whole lot younger than it. As we said, jetting out of Heathrow wasn’t yet an option in the 14th century. But there was plenty of activity in these central Eurasian areas dominated by the Mongol Golden Horde to connect lots of rodent reservoirs to a bacterium looking for a new place to call home.
Thanks Monica! The amount of information that follows from a few different nucleotides between aDNA samples is quite amazing, and learning how to interpret this data historically is rightly one of the transformative processes now happening in Biology (and if I say so, in Medical History as well).
Monica’s interpretation of plague’s past mobility is based on the same genetic data as the one sketched out in Spyrou 2016, and highlights the challenge of interpreting ancient DNA, given that the ancient DNA sequences of plague are still so sparsely sampled across time and space. One thing that strikes me as especially important is how much the argument of “favor the most simple, parsimonious explanation” changes based on whether you think of plague largely in terms of a human epidemic (which Wagner 2014, and by extension Spyrou 2016 appear to do), or as a disease that spread through human and wildlife both, as Monica and I do. If you include the possibility of new wildlife reservoirs of plague (and plague has created numerous new wildlife reservoirs in time), say near Bolgar City, the logic of how plague moved across Eurasia changes.
As more aDNA data becomes available, it will be very interesting to see the geographic range that a lineage of plague bacteria can spread without collecting changes in its SNP profile. Once we have a good idea of that, and a more complete view of the SNP profiles that existed during the past pandemics, SNP profiles might be used to shed light on the actual source of a historic plague outbreak, and thus offer an independent way of checking the reliability of historic sources that blame particular smugglers, ships, refugees or clothing as the source of a plague outbreak.
Wow, thanks, Monica, for this great discussion. This is an example on how history and biology can intertwine, and while we are all waiting for more revelations from aDNA and historic sources, it seems prudent to start more interactions between historians and biologists. There is an inherent bias to doubt your own data too much, and trust another fields’ data too blindly, leading to mistakes at both sides: we blindly pick some historic report as authoritative, or put too much faith in a report on the (in-) efficiency of plague transmission by different flea species, whilst a single mutation that causes the loss of a gene can have drastic effects on how well the disease transmits (Hinnebusch, 2016). The only practical way to avoid falling into such pitfalls is by investing in cross-talk between scholars of the humanities and natural sciences!
Thank you, Boris. This was great. And very special thanks to Michelle Ziegler, for hosting our discussion on her super blog, Contagions.
Bos, K. I., Herbig, A., Sahl, J., Waglechner, N., Fourment, M., Forrest, S. A., et al. (2016). Eighteenth century Yersinia pestis genomes reveal the long-term persistence of an historical plague focus. eLife, 5, 17837. http://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12994
Hinnebusch, B. J., Chouikha, I., & Sun, Y.-C. (2016). Ecological Opportunity, Evolution, and the Emergence of Flea-borne Plague. Infection and Immunity, IAI.00188–16–31. http://doi.org/10.1128/IAI.00188-16
Seifert, L., Wiechmann, I., Harbeck, M., Thomas, A., Grupe, G., Projahn, M., et al. (2016). Genotyping Yersinia pestis in Historical Plague: Evidence for Long-Term Persistence of Y. pestis in Europe from the 14th to the 17th Century. PLoS ONE, 11(1), e0145194-8. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145194
Spyrou, M. A., Tukhbatova, R. I., Feldman, M., Drath, J., Kacki, S., de Heredia, J. B., et al. (2016). Historical Y. pestisGenomes Reveal the European Black Death as the Source of Ancient and Modern Plague Pandemics. Cell Host and Microbe, 19(6), 874–881. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2016.05.012
Wagner, D. M., Klunk, J., Harbeck, M., Devault, A., Waglechner, N., Sahl, J. W., et al. (2014). Yersinia pestis and the Plague of Justinian 541–543 AD: a genomic analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 14(4), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70323-2
I’ve been a little obsessed with thinking about dogs and the plague lately. Dogs are often overlooked in historic plague discussions because they usually survive plague and dog-specific fleas are not associated with transmitting plague. Yet, dogs can host many of the fleas common among rodents and others that do transmit the plague including the cat flea (Ctenocephalidis felis) and the human flea (Pulex irritans) (Gage, Montenieri, & Thomas 1994). In a case controlled study of nine US cases of bubonic and septicemic plague in 2006, having dogs in the home and particularly sleeping with a dog was a significant risk factor, probably by flea transfer (Gould et al, 2008). There is also a growing awareness that dogs can also transmit pneumonic plague directly to humans. Like other aspects of plague biology, there is a lot going on under a veneer of normalcy.
Dogs do readily contract the plague; it’s just not apparent to casual observation. In the American state of New Mexico, 62 domestic dogs were diagnosed with plague just between the years 2003 and 2011 — 97% survived (Nichols et al, 2014). The dogs were diagnosed by an increase of Yersinia pestis F1 antibody greater than four times greater than the recovered level, by isolation of Yersinia pestis from a body fluid or by direct flourescent antibody assay of a tissue specimen. All of them had some physical sign of infection with fever and lethargy being found in 100% of cases, but buboes or lymphadenopathy (enlarged lymph nodes) were found in only 23% and these were all in the jaw and neck region. The mean time for recovery was two days, although all but one did receive at least one dose of antibiotics. Potential sources of plague exposure are from prairie dogs, ground squirrels, chipmunks, and rabbits. Only three of the dogs had any fleas at all, but as these dogs were pets, most had received anti-flea treatment.
Monitoring plague in working dogs and other carnivores is the most efficient method of doing plague surveillance in the vast semi-arid grasslands that harbor some of the most enduring plague reservoirs. Dogs are especially useful because their immunity only lasts about six months, so a detectable level (titre) of plague antibody indicates recent contact with an infected animal. Gage, Montenieri, and Thomas (1994:6) estimated that “sampling even a few rodent consuming carnivores, such as coyotes, can be roughly equivalent to sampling hundreds of rodents for evidence of plague infection”. The earliest serologic survey that I have found was done in Navajo lands in 1966-1968. In this same survey in 1968, “the plague organism was isolated from a pool of fleas (Pulex irritans) taken from the household dogs of a person with plague” (Archibald & Kunitz 1971). Carnivores are now routinely monitored in the US. Surveying herding dogs in Iran was able to show that the long unmonitored plague foci is still active (Esamaeili et al., 2013). Recent Chinese F1 antibody surveys in the Gansu province are more ominous: in 2012 4.55% of dogs were positive, but it had jumped to 10% of dogs by 2014 (Ge et al, 2014). Another 2014 survey of multiple Yersinia species in dogs found 25% of dogs in Gansu province and 18% of dogs in Qinghai province to be positive for Yersinia pestis F1 antibody, while no plague-free provinces had a single dog that had a positive antibody titre (Wang et al, 2014).
Consumption is the likely primary route of infection for dogs. The 62 dogs from New Mexico are believed to have been primarily infected by consumption of a plague infected rodent or rabbit (Nichols et al, 2014). In a 2014 case study from China, an infected marmot was taken from a dog, butchered and divided among five dogs. All five dogs developed positive antibody titers for plague and the shepherd who took the marmot from the dog developed pneumonic plague (but not his brother who butchered the marmot). Aerosol transmission was supported by the isolation of Y. pestis from sputum and throat samples (Ge et al, 2014). One dog not fed the marmot was negative for the F1 antigen. Three of the 151 human contacts given prophylactic antibiotics developed an antibody titre but did not manifest disease. According to Chinese policy, the five positive dogs were euthanized and the local marmots were depopulated (Ge et al., 2014).
Dogs can transmit plague to humans through fleas that feed on the dog, fleas carried by the dog from the rodent source of the infection, through bites or scratches, or by aerosols from dogs that develop a systemic infection. While dogs are usually thought of transmitting infected fleas to people, the number of pneumonic cases linked to dogs is increasing. The first confirmed transmission of pneumonic plague from a dog to a person occurred in China in 2009 (Wang et al, 2015). The index case in turn transmitted pneumonic plague to eleven people. Three of these twelve cases died with the other nine cases confirmed by Y. pestis F1 antibody titres. All of the Y. pestis isolates were later typed to “biovar antiqua” — a reminder that older strains are still very virulent (Wang et al, 2009). In June 2104, in Colorado, a dog transmitted pneumonic plague to three caregivers, one of whom transmitted it to another person. All of four of these cases survived and 88 additional people were given prophylactic antibiotics (Runfola et al, 2015). Three of China’s 2014 plague cases in Gansu province within the Qinghai-Tibet plague focus area were pneumonic plague in herders. All three arrived at the medical center too late for effective antibiotic treatment and died (Li et al, 2016). Chinese authorities believe that two of these men may have contracted plague from infected dogs and the third directly from a marmot (Lie et al, 2016).
Dog transmitted plague seems to usually result in family or small settlement size outbreaks. I do wonder about the potential role of dogs in the Bronze Age cases of plague (Rasmussen et al, 2015). Dogs contracting plague by consumption of infected rodents and passing it on to human contacts seems possible with the tools of the Bronze Age strains. It might also be worth investigating the potential role of dogs in the beginning of the Great Manchurian Plague of 1910-1911, which focused on hunters who likely used dogs extensively. Indeed hunters in this region would feed sick marmots to their dogs believing that they could not contract the disease. Outbreaks of 100% lethal plague were not unknown among hunting families in Manchuria (Summers 2012: 122-124). Such a high mortality rate would suggest pneumonic plague.
Archibald, W. S., & Kunitz, S. J. (1971). Detection of plague by testing serums of dogs on the Navajo Reservation. HSMHA Health Reports.
Esamaeili, S., Azadmanesh, K., Naddaf, S. R., Rajerison, M., Carniel, E., & Mostafavi, E. (2013). Serologic Survey of Plague in Animals, Western Iran. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19(9). http://doi.org/10.3201/eid1909.121829
Gage, K. L., Montenieri, J. A., & Thomas, R. E. (1994). The role of predators in the ecology, epidemiology, and surveillance of plague in the United States, 20.Proceedings of the 16th Vertebrate. Pest Conference (W.S. Halverson& A.C. Crabb, Eds.) Published at Univ. of Calif., Davis. 1994.
Ge P, Xi J, Ding J, Jin F, Zhang H, Guo L, Zhang J, Li J, Gan Z, Wu B, Liang J, Wang X, Wang X, Primary Case of Pneumonic Plague in Marmata himalayana natural focus area Gansu Province, China, International Journal of Infectious Diseases (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2014.12.044
Li, Y., Li, D, Shao, H., Li, H and Han, Y. (2016) Plague in China 2014 — All sporadic case report of pneumonic plague. BMC Infectious Disease. 16: 85.
Lin, Karen. (2014-07-02) Photo: Himalaya marmot eaten by wild dogs in N. Tibet. China Tibet Online. http://www.vtibet.com/en/news_1746/focus/201407/t20140703_209395.html
Nichols, M. C., Ettestad, P. J., Vinhatton, E. S., Melman, S. D., Onischuk, L., Pierce, E. A., & Aragon, A. S. (2014). Yersinia pestis infection in dogs: 62 cases (2003-2011). Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 244(10), 1176–1180. doi:10.2460/javma.244.10.1176
Rasmussen, S., Allentoft, M. E., Nielsen, K., Orlando, L., Sikora, M., Sjögren, K.-G., et al. (2015). Early Divergent Strains of Yersinia pestis in Eurasia 5,000 Years Ago. Cell, 163(3), 571–582. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2015.10.009 [Bronze Age cases]
Runfola, J. K., House, J., Miller, L., Coltron, L., Hite, D., Hawley, A., et al. (2015). Outbreak of Human Pneumonic Plague with Dog-to-Human and Possible Human-to-Human Transmission — Colorado, June–July 2014. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 64(16), 429–434.
Salkeld, D. J., & Stapp, P. (2006). Seroprevalence Rates and Transmission of Plague (Yersinia pestis) in Mammalian Carnivores. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 6(3), 231–239. http://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2006.6.231
Summers, William C. (2012) The Great Manchurian Plague of 1910-1911: The Geopolitics of an Epidemic Disease. Yale University Press.
Wang, H., Cui, Y., Wang, Z., Wang, X., Guo, Z., Yan, Y., et al. (2015). A Dog-Associated Primary Pneumonic Plague in Qinghai Province, China. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 52(2), 185–190. doi:10.1093/cid/ciq107
Wang, X., Liang, J., Xi, J., Yang, J., Wang, M., Tian, K., et al. (2014). Canis lupus familiaris involved in the transmission of pathogenic Yersinia spp. in China. Veterinary Microbiology, 172(1-2), 339–344. doi:10.1016/j.vetmic.2014.04.015