In a letter in this month’s Emerging Infectious Diseases, an Iranian and French team of epidemiologists report that the old plague focus in western Iran bordering Kurdistan is still active. Between 1947 and 1966 there were nine human plague epidemics causing 156 human deaths. The last recorded human case occurred in 1966 and in animals in 1978. No surveys for plague were conducted for the following 30 years. It is unlikely to be a coincidence that the Iranian Revolution also began in 1978.
During the summers of 2011 and 2012, the team captured and tested for the plague F1 antibody 98 rodents and counted their fleas, finding only one rodent with antibodies (1.08%). They also tested 117 sheepdogs finding 4 positive dogs or 3.42%. In dogs, plague antibodies only last about six months suggesting that these sheepdogs must have had recent infections. This is enough to suggest that the plague foci is still present in western Iran. Moreover, they believe the number of reservoir rodents and fleas per rodent (Xenopsylla species index 4.10) is “most favorable” circumstances for an epizootic. With plague antibodies found in the only area surveyed in 30 years, it is clear that surveillance needs to not only continue but expand extensively.
Esamaeili S, Azadmanesh K, Naddaf SR, Rajerison M, Carniel E, & Mostafavi E (2013). Serologic survey of plague in animals, Western Iran. Emerging infectious diseases, 19 (9) PMID: 23968721